Papers written for the people who have to act on them. Each one states its sources, shows the figures it relies on, and says plainly where the evidence runs out.
Announced pipelines and awarded contracts have moved in opposite directions across the Gulf. Reading either figure alone produces a materially wrong view of the market. This paper sets out what the two datasets show, why they diverge, and how contractors, suppliers, and investors should adjust sequencing and risk pricing in response.
Key findings
The GCC pipeline of planned and unawarded work reached a record $3.2 trillion, while contract awards fell to $213.2 billion in 2025 from $313.9 billion in 2024.
Saudi Arabia accounts for most of the decline, with awards falling from $164 billion to $84.5 billion in a single year.
Food and beverage attracts more speculative capital in the Gulf than almost any other consumer sector, and it produces more quiet failures. The reason is rarely demand. It is that most feasibility work anchors on a headline market-size number, treats delivery as free growth, and models labour cost as a constant. This paper examines each of those assumptions against audited disclosures from the two listed delivery platforms in the region, official Saudi tourism and GDP data, and the legislated Saudisation timetable running to 2028.
Key findings
Two published estimates of the Saudi foodservice market for the same year, 2025, differ by 29%. Mordor Intelligence states USD 30.12 billion; Fortune Business Insights states USD 38.81 billion. A feasibility case anchored on either number inherits an unexamined scope definition.
Delivery growth in the Gulf is decelerating sharply. Talabat GCC gross merchandise value grew 15% in Q4 2025 against 57% in its non-GCC markets, and the GCC share of its business fell from 84% to 80%. Group guidance for 2026 is 11% to 14% GMV growth, against 28% delivered in 2025.
Every figure in these papers carries a named source and a date. Where a number is widely repeated but cannot be traced to a primary source, we leave it out and say so. Client work never appears here without written authorisation.
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